Grand Prix

Levon Aronian has already clinched overall victory in the 2008-2009 Grand Prix as well as a spot in the 2010 Candidates, but it is still possible for eight different players to win the second spot, assuming of course that the sixth event is actually played

There are six events (five have been played) in the FIDE Grand Prix. Each contender plays in four events, with the top three counting. The 4th event is used only in tie-breaks.

The current leader for the last spot is Alexander Grischuk with 363.3 points and 45 on the 1st tie-breaker. He has played in all four of his events and cannot improve, so he is not the likely candidate.

The candidate with the best chance is Radjabov who also has 363.3 points. Radjabov can pass Grishcuk with just a 10th place finish in the last grand prix event, a feat he should be able to do easily and can clinch overall victory by winning a share of 1st place. Only Wang will be able to pass him if he wins clear 2nd place, and only Wang and Gashimov will be able to pass him if he scores clear 3rd or ties for 2nd-5th.

Yue Wang currently has 353.3 points and is the only other candidate who controls his own destiny. Winning clear 1st in the last GP event would give him enough GP and tie-break points to get overall 2nd place. A tie for first would give Wang the spot as long as Radjabov did not also tie for first. However, even a 3rd place finish would leave the door open for several other players if they happened to win the event. At the very least, Wang must finish in at least 6th (or 5th-7th) place or he will not have enough points to pass Grischuk.

Gashimov has 328.3 points and can gain up to 115 with a clear win in the last event. Gashimov can win by winning clear 1st place as long as Radjabov does not get clear 2nd. A 3rd place finish may lead to victory, but only if Radjabov finishes in the bottom half, and none of the other contenders score ahead of him. Gashimov can score no worse than 5th (or 4th-6th) to keep his hopes alive.

Leko has 320 points but can only gain 100 points with a clear win in the last event, which gives him, at best, an outside shot to win 2nd place overall. A clear win would force Radjabov to win 3rd-4th in order to beat him. 3rd place only just moves Leko past Grischuk (370 points) so everything would have to go perfectly if Leko were to get only 3rd place.

Jakovenko has a lot fewer points 278.3, but is actually in a slightly better position than Leko as he can gain up to 145 points, giving him a slightly higher potential maximum. He needs to win at least 2nd-5th (122.5) in order to earn enough points to stay alive.

Ivanchuk has fewer points still with 265.0 but can gain up to 160 points with a win in the grand prix, which actually puts him in the best position of the three (Leko, Jakovenko, and Ivanchuk). Winning 3rd-4th (120.0) earns Ivanchuk just enough points to slip by Grischuk.

Mamedyarov has a mathematical chance of catching Grischuk with 245 points and the potential to win 125. Clear 1st place will bring him up to 370, passing Grischuk, however everything would have to go right with no other contenders earning more than 370 points.

Summary:

Favorite: Radjabov
Contenders: Wang, Gashimov
Pretenders: Ivanchuk, Jakovenko, Leko
Longshots: Grischuk, Mamedyarov