Gelfand defeated Karjakin in the first round, with black! In order to force a rapid-play-off, Karjakin will have to win the second game with black against the #1 seed of the tournament. Almost assuredly, one of the two finalists will be Boris Gelfand.
The other semi-final game was a draw, in contrast to the other game, it is much more likely this will go to rapid-play. I still give the advantage to Ponomariov.
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